TJ Friedl
The 2020 Rule 5 Draft has added intrigue, since lots of the players that will be taken likely didn’t pitch this season, and many teams are going to be looking for bargain depth as they scream poverty.
The draft this year will take place virtually on Dec. 10 at 12:00 p.m. ET, it’s always the final piece of the Winter Meetings.
Before we take a took at the available players in the Rule 5 and players the Mets didn’t protect, let’s go through the rules of the draft.
- Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft. They can make as many selections as they have open spots and the draft order is based on record (unless of course a team has no open 40 spots). For example, the Mets pick 10th in the Rule 5 Draft and could theoretically make up to six picks.
- Drafting team must pay the player’s original team $100K.
- Player must stay on 26-man roster (or whatever size it is in 2021) for the entirety of the season.
- If drafting team wants to remove player from active roster, they are placed on waivers. If not claimed, they are offered back to original team for $50k. If they clear waivers and the original team doesn’t want them back for that price, they then can be sent to the minors by the team that drafted them.
- A Rule 5 pick can be placed on the major league injured list, but he must be on the active roster for 90 days to avoid the aforementioned roster restrictions during the next season.
- Teams can trade drafted players, and the roster restrictions stay the same.
- Drafting team can also work out a trade with the player’s original team to acquire his full rights, thus allowing them to option him to the minors without roster restrictions.
- Players that need to be added to 40-man roster to protect from Rule 5 Draft: players signed at 18 or younger that have spent five seasons in the minors or players signed at 19 or older that have spent four seasons in the minors
- There’s also a minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that has no roster restrictions for the drafting team, the player assumes his contract when they draft him and that’s the case until they become a free agent. The drafting team pays the player’s old team $24,500. In addition to the 40-man roster, teams submit a list of 38 players they want to protect from the minor league portion of the draft.
Lastly, let’s take a look at some players taken in the Rule 5 Draft that have provided value. Johan Santana and Roberto Clemente are the cream of the crop, but there’s also been plenty of value found in players like Justin Bour, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, and even the Mets in 2015 when they took Sean Gilmartin and he posted a 2.67 ERA that season.
Of course, the Mets also took Darren O’Day back in 2008, though they put him on waivers and he was claimed by the Rangers en route to a long career. There’s also examples like Jeff McNeil of players that were available but not taken in the Rule 5.
Point being, every few years a team finds value in the Rule 5 Draft at a very minimal cost. I would now like to discuss players available this year I believe could get selected on Thursday.
Garrett Whitlock, RHP – Yankees
All the buzz surrounding the Yankees prospect makes it sound like he’s a lock to get taken on Thursday. The Yankees’ 18th round pick from 2017 has a 2.41 ERA in 205 1/3 innings over three minor league seasons. The right-hander looks healthy now following Tommy John surgery back in July of 2019.
Whitlock features a power sinker and slider combo that has limited home runs to 0.4 per nine innings and hits to 7.9 per nine innings. He has worked almost primarily as a starter in the minors, with 38 starts and four relief appearances.
Alex Speas, RHP – Rangers
Big fastballs stand out, and Speas has one that hit 102 mph on the radar gun in 2019 post Tommy John. He hit that number six times in a bullpen session, and was also throwing a 94 mph slider. That’s the good news, but the right-hander tossed only one inning in 2019 and has never pitched above A-Ball.
The former second round pick has a 3.77 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings over parts of four minor league seasons. Athleticism is a big plus for Speas, but control has been an issue as a pro and he’s pitched very little since being drafted in 2016. Still only 22 years old, someone will likely take a chance on the high octane arm of Speas.
TJ Friedl, OF – Reds
Players that can stick in center fielder are a strong target in the Rule 5, Friedl plays all three outfield spots well. The 25-year-old is a career .277/.369/.412 hitter with 66 stolen bases in 339 minor league games.
The left-handed hitter has reached Double-A and is a pick that a team would likely feel comfortable having as a backup infielder. Friedl’s lack of power limits his upside, but his ability to play all three outfield spots, his on-base skills, and speed give him value off the bench. He is currently ranked as the Reds’ No. 19 prospect by MLB.com.
Omar Estevez, INF – Dodgers
Estevez is one of the infielders available getting the most hype before Thursday’s draft, he’s the Dodgers’ No. 21 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The right-handed hitter from Cuba has a .728 OPS in four minor league seasons, but his best offensive performance came in Double-A last year with a .291/.352/.431 slash line in 83 games.
That success at the plate came while playing 51 games at second base and 23 games at shortstop. Though, for his minor league career, he’s played 245 games at shortstop, 184 at second, and one at third base. The Dodgers signed Estevez for $6 million back in November of 2015.
As a hitter, he’s known for his ability to barrel balls consistently and his knowledge of the strike zone. Good instincts and quick hands make him a good defender, but he lacks the arm to play shortstop every day. Estevez could make a solid bench piece that’s still only 22-years old.
Marshall Kasowski, RHP – Dodgers
Staying in the Dodgers organization, this time for a hard throwing righty that was pitching at their alternate training site this year. The 25-year-old impressed during Spring Training this year with seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 scoreless innings.
The survivor of a horrific car accident, Marshall has posted huge strikeout numbers (14.8 K/9) in 107 minor league innings. He’s also allowed only 59 hits in that span, though control has been an issue with a whopping 66 walks.
The former 13th round pick pitched mostly in Double-A in 2019, posting a 2.45 ERA and striking out 46 in 29 innings. As you can see from the video, he releases the pitch from an unusual angle and he has trouble locating both his fastball and curve.
Kasowski has seen his fastball up to 97 mph (sits 92-95) that plays up given his delivery and how he hides the ball. Baseball America reports that Kasowski had offseason surgery to reattach his ulnar collateral ligament, and while he might not be ready for Opening Day, he should pitch in 2021.
Other names to watch include: RHP Danny Dopico, LHP Matt Krook, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Paul Campbell, RHP Riley Pint, SS Kyle Holder, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, OF Buddy Reed, OF Akil Baddoo, and RHP Brian Howard.
Photo by Ed Delany, MMO
As for the players the Mets could potentially lose, the two names I keep hearing the most are infielder Shervyen Newton and right-handed picher Michel Otanez. Both are on Baseball America’s list of players to watch in the draft, along with Mets right-handed relief prospect Marcel Renteria.
Newton showed that he is finally healthy this year during the Instructional League, though he’s still raw and has never played above Class-A (Columbia Fireflies). Otanez is hard thrower, but his highest level of experience came with the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2019. Renteria fits the bill of a Rule 5 Draft pick better for me, reliever up to 99 mph on fastball and high-spin slider that has reached Double-A.
Right-handed pitchers Dedniel Nunez (Mets prospect I would target if I had a pick), Tony Dibrell, and Daison Acosta are all on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Mets prospects and were left vulnerable to the Rule 5 Draft. Other Mets prospects hovering around our own Top 30 that are eligible be taken include shortstop Wilmer Reyes, third baseman Will Toffey, infielder Luis Carpio, and right-handed pitcher Harol Gonzalez.
As for the minor league phase of the draft, I believe the Mets will be active here as the depth in the upper minors of their farm system is weak and this is a good way to infuse it with some talent. On the Mets end of potentially losing players in the minor league phase, our own Jacob Resnick took a look at the players the Mets left unprotected.
The Mets enter the Rule 5 Draft (as of Wednesday afternoon) with 34 players on the 40-man roster, meaning we could see them make a pick. If they do, I would expect them to target a reliever, and I personally like Kasowski.
